Abstract
There is a general concern that the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will result in higher aging failure probability of equipment and reduced network reliability. The electricity costs may also increase, due to the exacerbation of peak load led by uncontrolled EV charging. This paper proposes a linear optimization model for the assessment of the benefits of EV smart charging on both network reliability improvement and electricity cost reduction. The objective of the proposed model is the cost minimization, including the loss of load, repair costs due to aging failures, and EV charging expenses. The proposed model incorporates a piecewise linear model representation for the failure probability distributions and utilizes a machine learning approach to represent the EV charging load. Considering two different test systems (a 5-bus network and the IEEE 33-bus network), this paper compares aging failure probabilities, service unavailability, expected energy not supplied, and total costs in various scenarios with and without the implementation of EV smart charging.
POWER utilities need to maintain a certain level of reliability for the electrical energy supply in distribution networks at reasonable costs [
The wide use of electric vehicles (EVs) is seen as a major contribution to a sustainable global development [
Reliability, defined as the probability of providing adequate electricity to the load with appropriate power quality in the planned timeframe [
From the perspective of power utility investments, reliability enhancement methods can be classified into three groups: cost-free methods (flexibility-based), non-cost-free methods (technical methods), and hybrid methods. Typical cost-free methods achieve power supply-demand balance during contingencies through load and generation scheduling, including distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR), storage units, and EV smart charging. Within this framework, the DG impact on network reliability is analyzed in [
Given the significant impact on system reliability and the expected increase in EV usage, EV smart charging needs to be prioritized, as analyzed in [
Aging failure of cables is considered in [
The aging status of the equipment is closely related to temperature and loading conditions. Real-time dynamic thermal rating (DTR) has been shown to significantly improve system reliability in bulk power systems with accurate metering and weather data collection [
This paper focuses on the effects of temperature due to load fluctuations, specifically due to EV charging processes, building upon the approach introduced in our previous study [
This paper proposes a reliability-based optimization procedure, with a cost minimization objective, considering customer losses resulting from node unavailability, power utility investments in replacing aged equipment, EV charging, and power losses. The developed optimization procedure considers the operational constraints of the distribution network, EV charging load, power flows, and a linear representation of the aging failure probabilities for low-voltage (LV) insulated power cables and transformers.
The main scope of this paper is to estimate the impact of EV smart charging on system reliability due to aging failure. The design of situation awareness methodologies to mitigate the effects of DG variations and sudden failures (e.g., due to extreme weather events) on system reliability is beyond the scope of this study.
The main contributions of this paper are summarized as follows.
1) The mathematical formulation of the optimization procedure is proposed for the assessment of the influence of EV smart charging on system reliability enhancement in terms of customer and power utility costs associated with aging failures of LV transformers and cables.
2) A model for accurately representing the non-linear characteristics of aging failures in transformers and cables is proposed using piecewise linear constraints.
3) A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is proposed for the representation of EV charging load demand based on survey data.
The proposed optimization model is a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained programming (MIQCP) model, which is solved by using the Gurobi solver. The main constraints of the optimization problem include the power flow equations, the representation of EV charging, and the proposed piecewise linear model for estimating aging failures. The framework of the proposed optimization model is illustrated in

Fig. 1 Framework of proposed reliability optimization model.
This paper is organized as follows. Section II presents the formulation of the optimization procedure. Section III describes the adopted two test networks (a 5-bus network and the IEEE 33-bus network), the base load and EV charging profiles, and the selected test cases. Section IV presents and analyses the simulation results. Section V concludes this paper.
Considering the set of feeder buses N (with index i, while indicates the substation transformer (ST)) representing the customers at each bus (where customer loads, including EV charging, are aggregated), and the set of time slots Ts (with index j) representing the optimization horizon, the variables in the model are organized as:
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
where is the set of variables for EV charging at each bus, in which is the energy level, is the required energy for being fully charged, is the charging power, and is the maximum charging power considering the number of EVs connected to the charging stations; is the set of the power flow variables, in which is the active power flow, is the reactive power flow, is the bus voltage square magnitude, and is the branch current square magnitude; is the set of variables of the piecewise linear model of cable aging failure probability, in which is the binary variable of the
The considered time horizon is one year. To simplify the analysis, the base load demand (excluding EV charging) for the entire year is clustered as load demand for three typical days. Each day is divided into time slots of 1 hour duration. The following subsections describe the various parts of the model, the procedure for calculating the inputs, and the approach used to solve the optimization problem.
The objective function includes the customer cost (CC) due to aging failures, the utility cost (UC) for the replacement of damaged equipment, the EV charging cost (EVC), and the cost associated to power loss (PLC):
(5) |
1) CC considers the aging failure probabilities of lines , DTs , and ST . Considering the post-fault reconfiguration (e.g., circuit breaker, switches), unavailability at bus i is defined by:
(6) |
(7) |
(8) |
where RCik and SCik are the i
The EENS at bus i is calculated by multiplying unavailability by the average power :
(9) |
The value of customer reliability (VCR) and EENS estimate the customer loss due to aging failures on equipment:
(10) |
The calculation of the aggregate VCR values, considering different locational load components, is described in Section III.
2) UC is calculated by combining the costs for purchasing new equipment and replacing damaged ones with the aging failure probabilities for each device:
(11) |
where , , and are the costs for the
3) EVC for utilities is expressed as:
(12) |
where is the wholesale electricity price at the
4) PLC is defined as:
(13) |
where is the power loss of the whole feeder.
The components in objective function (5) are influenced by the implementation of EV smart charging. Indeed, EV smart charging reduces the power flow and loading on cables and transformers during peak hours, leading to a decrease in aging failure probabilities and an improvement in system reliability. Additionally, the adoption of EV smart charging results in a reduction in power loss and payments for EV smart charging.
The constraints are related to the operational limits of the network, EV load and charging power, and the piecewise linear representation of failure probabilities for cables and transformers.
Failure probabilities () of transformer and line are related to their loadings, temperatures, and the functional age (). is determined by historical operations, maintenance conditions, and actual operational statuses [
The real-time temperature of an equipment depends on the ambient temperature and loading conditions. References [
Higher loading increases the temperature, the relative aging speed (), and the loss-of-life. The RAS is defined as the ratio between the lifespans under rated temperature () and a specific hot-spot temperature (). and at the
(14) |
(15) |
where a and b are the constants given by manufacturers.
Based on the Arrhenius-Weibull distribution, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for aging failure of a transformer and a cable are expressed as:
(16) |
(17) |
where and are the rated lifespans of insulated transformer and cable under the rated operating temperatures and , respectively; and and are the shape parameters of the Arrhenius-Weibull distributions for cables and transformers, respectively.
As described in [
(18) |
(19) |
Due to the nonlinear characteristic of the aging failure probability equations, a piecewise linearization is adopted:
(20) |
where is the slop of the
(21) |
(22) |
(23) |
(24) |
(25) |
(26) |
(27) |
(28) |
where is the binary variable; is the failure probability of the
Constraints (21)-(23) determine the specific segment utilized according to the value of . Constraints (24)-(27) define the failure probability at each segment. Assuming , to meet the constraints (26) and (27), ; otherwise, constraints (24) and (25) are equivalent to:
(29) |
The total failure probability is defined in (28) by the summation of all the failure probability at each segment during all intervals. The accuracy of the linearization depends on the number of segments. A large number of segments lead to high accuracy but increase the solution time. The PWLF Python library [
The aging failure probabilities of transformers when load varies from 0 p.u. to 2.0 p.u. by 0.001 are calculated using (14). These values are the inputs of the PWLF library based procedure that finds the optimal breakpoints (), slopes (), and initial failure probability () for each segment. The piecewise linearization method demonstrates good performance when the number of segments is set to be 10, as observed from the comparison of failure probabilities using the linearized equations and the original model.

Fig. 2 Original and linearized data for aging failure probability on transformer.
A similar procedure is adopted to linearize the aging failure probability of a cable based on the temperature. Following the approach described in [
(30) |
The input is the temperature (varied from 0 ℃ to 100 ℃) and the output is the aging failure probability for the piecewise linearization. Aging failure probabilities of cables are obtained using (19). Breakpoints (), slope (), and initial failure probability () are determined using the PWLF library [

Fig. 3 Original and linearized data for aging failure probability on cable.
Segment No. | Transformer | Cable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(p.u.) | (℃) | |||||
1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2 | 1.12 | 46.67 | ||||
3 | 1.25 | 60.27 | ||||
4 | 1.46 | 71.79 | ||||
5 | 1.59 | 79.37 | ||||
6 | 1.71 | 84.34 | ||||
7 | 1.80 | 88.07 | ||||
8 | 1.85 | 91.43 | ||||
9 | 1.90 | 94.33 | ||||
10 | 1.95 | 97.03 |
The parameters of the piecewise linear model of cable aging failure probability refer to a generic insulated LV power cable. Obtaining specific information on the type of cables installed in the distribution network is crucial for developing accurate models that can be effectively used in a specific study.
A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model predicts the travel mileages of EV in the test system. The typical MLP model is structured by an input layer, multiple hidden layers, and an output layer. The mathematical relationship between input layer () and output layer () of an MLP with one hidden layer () is expressed as [
(31) |
(32) |
where , , and are the weights, biases, and activation function of hidden layer, respectively; and , , and are the weights, biases, and activation function of output layer, respectively.
The open data of 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) [
The probabilistic distribution functions of vehicle departure time () and arrival time () have been modelled as normal distributions:
(33) |
(34) |
These normal distributions are used to generate the EV arrival time vector () and departure time vector (), given the number of EVs in the test system. The time range for optimizing the aggregated EV charging load is between the earliest arrival time and earliest departure time for simplicity, as shown in

Fig. 4 Time range for optimizing aggregated EV charging load.
The newly generated vectors of and are the inputs of the pre-trained MLP model to predict the EV travel mileage vector ().
Combining the travel mileage and the EV battery data (i.e., rated charging power and capacity), the state-of-charge (SoC) level (SoCil), the initial stored energy (), and the required energy () of the
(35) |
(36) |
(37) |
where , , , and are the rated travel mileage, type (e.g., full electric or hybrid), expected travel mileage, and rated capacity of the
To generate the optimized EV load at each bus, the following constraints (38)-(43) are implemented. Constraints (38) and (39) define the limit of charging power. The maximum charging power of bus i at the
(38) |
(39) |
(40) |
(41) |
(42) |
(43) |
where is the average charging efficiency; is the rated charging power of EV on the bus at the interval; and is the initial required energy by the EVs at bus i after they arrive at their respective homes.
The power flow calculation in the optimization model is based on the DistFlow model introduced in [

Fig. 5 Illustration of power flow line model.
The formulas of the model are expressed as:
(44) |
(45) |
(46) |
(47) |
(48) |
(49) |
(50) |
(51) |
(52) |
where , , , and are the active power flow at the sending end of the branch, reactive power flow at the sending end of the branch, the bus voltage square magnitude, and the branch current square magnitude, respectively; is the square voltage at the sending bus of the
Constraints (44)-(49) are the power flow formulas [
The flowchart of the solution approach is illustrated by

Fig. 6 Flowchart of solution approach.
The proposed procedure is applied to two different test networks: a 5-bus network and the IEEE 33-bus network.
The 5-bus network, shown in

Fig. 7 Configuration of 5-bus network [
Bus No. | Number of customers | Rated load (kW) | Transformer capacity (kW) | VCR (AUD/kWh) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 50 | 240 | 240 | 37.21 |
2 | 40 | 200 | 240 | 36.38 |
3 | 60 | 240 | 240 | 38.46 |
4 | 30 | 120 | 240 | 25.95 |
5 | 30 | 120 | 240 | 25.95 |
No. | Replacement cost (kAUD) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Branch | DT | ST | |
1 | 66 | 70 | 200 |
2 | 132 | 70 | - |
3 | 98 | 76 | - |
4 | 102 | 70 | - |
5 | 186 | 70 | - |
To further assess the applicability of the proposed optimization procedure, IEEE 33-bus network [
The losses of life due to historical operation for all the transformers and cables are equal to 170000 hours and 165000 hours, respectively, for both test networks. The piecewise linearization of
Residential load forecasting plays an important role in short-term operation of distribution system and the application of demand response techniques [

Fig. 8 Clustered load profile without EV and wholesale electricity prices. (a) Load profile. (b) Electricity price.
The rated travel mileage is 120. The rated capacity is 40 kWh. The maximum uncontrolled charging power is 10 kW. Assuming a EV penetration of 200% (i.e., every house has two EVs) in the test system, the departure time and arrival time are input to the pre-trained MLP model to predict the travel mileage of each EV. Then, SoC, the energy left and needed of each EV can be calculated by (31)-(33). After collecting those data, the aggregated information of each bus is summarized.

Fig. 9 EV charging load profiles () with uncontrolled charging mode. (a) Cluster 1. (b) Cluster 2. (c) Cluster 3.
Three cases are considered as follows.
Case 1: the costs related to aging failure and power utilities are calculated for the uncontrolled EV charging mode, without any optimization.
Case 2: the effects of the optimization are analyzed with the objective of minimizing the sum of charging costs and power loss costs, represented by in (5).
Case 3: the effects of the optimization are analyzed by considering all the components of objective function (5).
This section first compares the results of integrated load, aging failure probabilities of transformers and cables, customer loss due to aging failures, utility cost for managing aging failure, and utility payment on the wholesale market for EV charging load and power loss for the 5-bus network. Then, the simulation results on the IEEE 33-bus network are presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed optimization procedures.
The simulation results of total loads including optimized EV charging demands with different objective functions are compared with uncontrolled charging for 3 clusters, respectively, as shown in Figs.

Fig. 10 Base load and electricity price for cluster 1 from 13:00 to 06:00.

Fig. 11 Comparison of total loads including EV charging demand at ST and buses 1-5 for cases 1-3 of cluster 1. (a) At ST. (b) At bus 1. (c) At bus 2. (d) At bus 3. (e) At bus 4. (f) At bus 5.

Fig. 12 Base load and electricity price for cluster 2 from 13:00 to 06:00.

Fig. 13 Comparison of total loads including EV charging demand at ST and buses 1-5 for cases 1-3 of cluster 2. (a) At ST. (b) At bus 1. (c) At bus 2. (d) At bus 3. (e) At bus 4. (f) At bus 5.

Fig. 14 Base load and electricity price for cluster 3 from 13:00 to 06:00.

Fig. 15 Comparison of total load including EV charging demand at ST and buses 1-5 for cases 1-3 of cluster 3. (a) At ST. (b) At bus 1. (c) At bus 2. (d) At bus 3. (e) At bus 4. (f) At bus 5.
Figures
This subsection presents aging failure probabilities of cables and transformers for the considered 3 cases in a year. As aging failure probability is affected by temperature and power flow, all the cables and transformers have the highest aging failures due to high aging speeds at peak hours for case 1, as shown in
Item | Aging failure probability (%) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Case 1 | Case 2 | Case 3 | |
Cable 1 | 100.000 | 6.890 | 7.307 |
Cable 2 | 63.690 | 7.094 | 2.145 |
Cable 3 | 5.762 | 0.338 | 0.410 |
Cable 4 | 0.075 | 0.072 | 0.074 |
Cable 5 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.073 |
DT1 | 3.747 | 1.067 | 0.905 |
DT2 | 6.294 | 1.552 | 0.938 |
DT3 | 10.030 | 2.163 | 0.979 |
DT4 | 16.510 | 1.733 | 0.956 |
DT5 | 4.483 | 1.447 | 0.911 |
ST | 3.089 | 1.401 | 1.348 |
The aging failure probability of cable 1 is 100%, indicating the termination of its life within one year when the operation loss of life for cable 1 is 165000 hours respect to its total lifespan of 180000 hours. For cable 2, the aging failure probability is higher than 50% in case 1. Cables 4 and 5 show similar aging failure probabilities for case 2 and case 3 since the minimization of the electricity payments reduces the loading fluctuations.
Similarly, the aging failure probabilities of ST and DTs are reduced in cases 2 and 3 compared with case 1. As expected, all transformers have the lowest failure probability in Case 3, which also depends on the transformer capacity. To better illustrate the impact of EV smart charging on the equipment aging failure,

Fig. 16 Comparison of aging failure probabilities without/with EV smart charging in 5-bus network. (a) Cable. (b) DT. (c) ST.
Tables
Case | Unavailability (hour) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bus 1 | Bus 2 | Bus 3 | Bus 4 | Bus 5 | Average | |
Case 1 | 34.440 | 34.950 | 4.904 | 6.215 | 34.610 | 23.020 |
Case 2 | 3.481 | 3.443 | 0.813 | 0.765 | 3.411 | 2.383 |
Case 3 | 2.478 | 2.484 | 0.730 | 0.740 | 2.494 | 1.785 |
Case | EENS (kWh) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bus 1 | Bus 2 | Bus 3 | Bus 4 | Bus 5 | Average | |
Case 1 | 5291.20 | 4295.60 | 903.98 | 572.860 | 3189.60 | 2850.70 |
Case 2 | 533.13 | 421.73 | 151.95 | 71.824 | 313.36 | 298.40 |
Case 3 | 389.96 | 312.80 | 132.20 | 68.130 | 235.46 | 228.11 |

Fig. 17 Comparison of unavailability and EENS without and with EV smart charging in 5-bus network.
The values of EVC, PLC, UC, and CC in a year are presented in
Case | Cost (kAUD) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EVC | PLC | UC | CC | Total | |
Case 1 | 107.97 | 12.71 | 191.46 | 458.57 | 797.71 |
Case 2 | 70.67 | 8.64 | 16.79 | 42.11 | 138.21 |
Case 3 | 73.45 | 8.70 | 13.63 | 33.60 | 129.38 |

Fig. 18 Total cost without and with optimization for 5-bus network.
With EV charging load optimization, there is a yearly cost reduction of 659.5 kAUD (case 2) and 668.3 kAUD (case 3) with respect to the fast-charging condition (case 1).
The base load, EV charging load profile, and VCR are the same as those adopted for the 5-bus network. Aging failure probabilities of cables and transformers for the considered 3 cases based on the proposed model are calculated by applying the procedures presented in Section II. Aging failure probability for ST is reduced from 3.22% (case 1) to 1.26% (case 2) and 1.10% (case 3). The highest aging failure probability reduction is the one of DT23: from 29.4% (case 1) to 2.04% (case 2) and 1.50% (case 3) with EV smart charging. The aging failure on cable 1 reduces from 9.88% to 0.07% with EV charging optimization.

Fig. 19 Aging failure probabilities of cables and transformers without/with EV smart charging in IEEE 33-bus network. (a) Cable. (b) DT. (c) ST.
Similarly, the unavailability and EENS for a year at buses 9, 12, 23, 24, 29, and 31 without and with EV smart charging in IEEE 33-bus network are presented in

Fig. 20 Comparison of unavailability and EENS on selected buses without/with EV smart charging in IEEE 33-bus network.
The yearly cost related to EV charging, power loss, and reliability cost due to aging failure is shown in
Case | Cost (kAUD) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EVC | PLC | UC | CC | Total | |
Case 1 | 668.81 | 43.93 | 89.51 | 357.96 | 1160.20 |
Case 2 | 549.54 | 18.21 | 39.73 | 136.19 | 743.67 |
Case 3 | 550.25 | 19.62 | 25.24 | 97.31 | 692.42 |

Fig. 21 Total cost without and with optimization for IEEE 33-bus network.
The EVC, PLC, UC, and CC values for the IEEE 33-bus network are higher due to the complexity of network, larger number of EV integration, and higher power losses on the branches compared with the simulation results of the 5-bus network. However, as illustrated in
This paper presents an optimization procedure based on an MIQCP model including the linearized aging failure models for transformers and cables, EV charging constraints, and power flow calculation. The procedure can assess network reliability improvement and utility cost reduction obtained by the optimization of EV charging load.
The application of the procedure to two different test networks (a 5-bus network and the IEEE 33-bus network) shows the characteristics of the approach and its feasibility for the analysis of real operating conditions.
The results show the significant impact of high aging failure probabilities on network reliability when the EV smart charging is absent, leading to increased power utility costs and customer losses. By adopting EV smart charging, the aging failure probabilities for cables and transformers are reduced by an average of 31% and 6%, respectively. Network reliability is improved, resulting in reduced node unavailability and EENS of 21 hours and 2.5 MWh, on average, respectively, for the 5-bus network. Likewise, the implementation of EV smart charging improves system reliability in the IEEE 33-bus network by reducing aging failure probabilities.
The most substantial improvement in network reliability is obtained by applying a smart charging strategy that minimalizes the total cost of customer loss and utilities (referred to as case 3 in this paper).
In this study, the clustered base load is adapted from historical data, as the principal focus is on the assessment of the capability of EV charging optimization to improve system reliability and reduce yearly customer costs. All the EVs are assumed as fully electric with the same charging power. However, accurate load prediction, incorporating EV load profile and considering additional factors (e.g., the combination of decentralized and centralized fast charging), deserves further investigation. Additionally, given the benefit of vehicle-to-grid technology, controlled discharging of EVs can be also integrated into the proposed reliability optimization model.
Restrictions on uncontrolled charging carry significant legal and economic implications, which have not been explicitly addressed in this paper. These aspects require specific consideration and further analysis to fully understand their impact on the implementation of EV charging policies.
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