Abstract
An analytical calculation method for the reliability sensitivity indexes of distribution systems is proposed to explicitly quantify the impact of various influence factors on system reliability. Firstly, the analytical calculation formulas for the reliability indexes of distribution systems are derived based on the fault incidence matrix (FIM). Secondly, the factors that affect system reliability are divided into two categories: quantifiable parameter factors and non-quantifiable network structure factors. The sensitivity indexes for the quantifiable parameter factors are derived using the direct partial derivation of the reliability calculation formulas. The sensitivity indexes for the non-quantifiable network structure factors are derived using the transformation of FIMs. Finally, the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed sensitivity calculation method are verified by applying them to an IEEE 6-bus RBTS system. This paper sums up the factors that influence system reliability in detail and gives the explicit analytical calculation method for the sensitivity of each factor. Repetitive calculation of the reliability index can be avoided during the sensitivity analysis. The bottleneck that affects the reliability level of distribution systems can be identified efficiently, and valuable information and guidance can be provided to enhance the reliability of distribution systems.
Keywords
Distribution system reliability ; fault incidence matrix ; reliability sensitivity ; analytical calculation
THE reliability level of a distribution system has a significant impact on customers [
Sensitivity analysis is a necessary step to quantify the impact of each component’s failure event on system reliability and identify the weak link of the system, which can provide valuable information for reliability enhancement. Currently, sensitivity calculation methods can be classified into two categories: the finite difference method or perturbation method [
The partial derivation method is based on an explicit calculation formula for a system reliability index. The sensitivity of one parameter can be directly deduced using partial derivation despite changes in other parameters. Reference [
Currently, the research on the sensitivity index calculation based on the derivation operation focuses only on transmission systems. No partial derivation method exists for distribution systems. The reason is that the network structure, the operation mode, the protection practice, the load transfer, and the fault restore process for distribution systems are entirely different from those of transmission systems. Therefore, it is unrealistic to apply the sensitivity calculation method for transmission systems directly to distribution systems.
The analytical formula for the reliability indexes of distribution systems is the premise for the sensitivity calculation, and can be derived using the minimum cut set [
Apart from the lack of an explicit analytical formula for the simple sensitivity analysis for distribution systems, another obstacle is the sensitivity analysis for non-quantifiable network structure factors such as the position of the disconnecting switch [
To sum up, a systematic analytical method of reliability sensitivity analysis for distribution systems is required, which includes various quantifiable and non-quantifiable factors. Therefore, in this paper, an analytical calculation method for reliability sensitivity based on the fault incidence matrix (FIM) is proposed to explicitly quantify the impact of various influence factors on the reliability of distribution systems. The remainder part of this paper is organized as follows. A brief review of the analytical reliability calculation method based on the FIM is provided in Section Ⅱ. The sensitivity derivation method for quantifiable and non-quantifiable parameter factors of a distribution system is presented in Section Ⅲ. In Section Ⅳ, an IEEE 6-bus RBTS system is taken as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sensitivity calculation method. Section Ⅴ concludes the paper.
An explicit expression of a system reliability index is the basis for achieving the analytical deduction of the reliability sensitivity indexes. The method for calculating sensitivity indexes proposed in this paper is based on the analytical reliability calculation model in [
The impact of a component failure on system load points in a distribution system can be classified into three types [
1) The fault leads to the disconnection of all the power supply paths to the load points, and only when the fault component is repaired can a load be restored.
2) The fault leads to the disconnection of all the power supply paths to the load points, but after fault isolation, a load can be restored from the main power supply.
3) The fault leads to the disconnection of all the power supply paths to the load points, and after the fault isolation, a load can be restored from an alternative supply.
In [

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of network structure.

Fig. 2 Schematic diagram of three types of FIM.
The three FIMs in
Based on the FIM, an explicit calculation of the system reliability index can easily be realized. Three indexes, system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), system average interruption duration index (SAIDI), and expected energy not supplied (EENS) are calculated as:
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
where and are the vectors formed by the branch failure rate and repair duration according to the branch numbers, respectively; n and P are the vectors formed by the number of customers and the load demand according to the load numbers, respectively; N is the total number of customers of the whole system; tsw and top are the switching times of the disconnecting switches and the tie switches, respectively; and the symbol “ ” represents the Hadamard product operation. The operation rule is the multiplication of the elements in corresponding positions of two matrixes or vectors.
More details about the reliability calculation process of the system can be found in [
The factors that influence the system reliability indexes are classified into two categories:
1) Quantifiable parameter factors such as the failure rate, the repair duration, and the switching time. The sensitivity index of the influence factors can be obtained using partial derivation, which will be described in Section Ⅲ-B.
2) Non-quantifiable network structure factors such as the installation position of the breaker, the disconnecting switch, and the tie line. The sensitivity index of this kind of influence factors can be obtained using the transformation of the FIMs, which will be described in Section Ⅲ-C.
Component failure rates have the impacts on SAIFI, SAIDI, and EENS. Taking the system in
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
where
a
i
,
b
i
,
c
i
are the i

Fig. 3 Derivation of sensitivity of SAIFI with respect to failure rate parameters.
The deduction of the sensitivity of SAIDI and EENS with respect to the failure rate
is similar to the process in
The change of the component repair duration influences only SAIDI and EENS. Taking the system in
(7) |
(8) |
We can see that the sensitivity result of can be easily calculated using (7) and (8) as long as is obtained.
The function of the disconnecting switch is to isolate the fault component from the non-fault area and can be re-powered after the isolation. Therefore, the operation time of the disconnecting switch has an influence on the restoration time of the non-fault area. The sensitivity indexes with respect to the operation time of disconnecting switch tsw are calculated as follows:
(9) |
(10) |
After deriving , the sensitivity with respect to the operation time of disconnecting switch can be calculated using (9) and (10), which can help a planner or operator assess whether the operation time is the bottleneck in improving system reliability.
The function of the tie switch is to transfer some of the load points to other feeders to restore a non-fault area. Therefore, the operation time of the tie switching top has an influence on the system reliability. The sensitivity results can be obtained using the partial derivative calculation as:
(11) |
(12) |
After deriving , the sensitivity with respect to the operation time of tie switch can be calculated using (11) and (12).
For non-quantifiable network structure factors, the sensitivity indexes cannot be obtained using the partial derivation operation. For example, if a new disconnecting switch must be installed in an existing distribution network to maximally enhance the system reliability, the best installation position should be decided from a few candidate positions. Traditional practice involves the re-calculation of system reliability indexes each time when a new switch changes its installation position. The process is time-consuming. In this paper, the sensitivity indexes with respect to non-quantifiable influence factors can be obtained using the transformation of the FIMs. In the following subsections, four non-quantifiable influence factors are considered: the sensitivity of a circuit breaker installation position; the sensitivity of a disconnecting switch installation position; the sensitivity of a tie line access position; and the sensitivity of automation transformation of selected manual switches.
Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 4 Installation position of an added circuit breaker.
The installation of the new breaker only changes the elements in F B . The reason is that the load points within a non-fault area will be affected by the fault component without a breaker to isolate the fault component rapidly. This kind of effect belongs to the impact type 2) corresponding to . If a new breaker is installed in a certain position, the affected load points in the non-fault area will change, and the elements in change correspondingly. Therefore, as long as is derived considering the new breaker installation, the sensitivity indexes can be calculated easily.
Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 5 Change of F B before and after installation of a circuit breaker.
As shown in
(13) |
Equation (13) provides the specific deduction process of the sensitivity of the circuit breaker installation position. and represent before and after the installation of the new breaker, respectively. Equation (13) calculates the SAIFI improvement arising from this newly installed breaker. Similarly, SAIDI and EENS sensitivities with respect to the breaker installation position can be calculated as:
(14) |
(15) |
Equations (13)-(15) describe the explicit expression of the sensitivity of breaker installation position, avoiding the calculation process of redundant reliability index.
Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 6 Position of an added disconnecting switch.
The installation of the new disconnecting switch will change the elements of all three FIMs. The reason is that the non-fault area will be interrupted without a switch to isolate the fault event and cannot be re-powered until the fault event is cleared, which belongs to the impact type 1) corresponding to If a new switch is added in a certain position, the non-fault area will be re-powered as soon as the fault is isolated by this switch. Thus, the impact type changes to type 2) or type 3) corresponding to or . Therefore, the new switch installation influences the elements of all three FIMs, and the sensitivity results can be calculated accordingly, as long as the three FIMs are derived.
Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 7 Change of FIMs. (a) Before installation of a disconnecting switch. (b) After installation of a disconnecting switch.
As shown in
(16) |
(17) |
In (16) and (17), , , and , , represent the three FIMs before and after the installation, respectively. The installation of a disconnecting switch will not influence the SAIFI index because the power outage frequency will not decrease despite the increase of switches. Equations (16) and (17) reveal the function of the disconnecting switch, which is to reduce the outage duration of the interrupted load within the non-fault area. With the help of the sensitivity calculation formulas, valuable guidance can be provided to optimize the position of switch installation and efficiently improve the system reliability.
The role of a tie line is to restore the interrupted load points in the non-fault area. Hence, optimizing the layout of a tie line can effectively improve system reliability. Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 8 Position of an added tie line.
The access of a tie line will change the elements in
and
. As shown in

Fig. 9 Change of FIMs before and after access of a tie line.
As shown in
(18) |
(19) |
These equations describe the function of the tie line, which is to reduce the outage time from the fault repair duration to the load transferring duration. With the help of the sensitivity calculation equations, valuable guidance can be provided to optimize the position of tie line access and efficiently improve the system reliability.
An effective and practical measure to improve system reliability is through the automation transformation of manual switches. After the automation transformation, the switching time will be shortened. Thus, the fault isolation and re-power durations will be greatly shortened for the load points within the non-fault area. Taking the distribution system in

Fig. 10 Position of automatic switch.
The automation transformation will change the elements in
. As shown in

Fig. 11 Change of FIMs before and after installation of automatic switch.
The matrix reveals the function of the automatic transformation, which is to reduce the restoration duration of the non-fault area. Hence, the sensitivity with respect to the automatic transformation of the manual switches is obtained by the difference between the reliability indexes before and after the automatic transformation.
(20) |
(21) |
where tauto represents the automatic switching time.
In summary, the influence factors are classified into two categories: quantifiable parameter factors and non-quantifiable network structure factors. The partial derivation method is used to calculate the sensitivity indexes with respect to the quantifiable parameter factors. The FIM transformation method is used to calculate the sensitivity indexes with respect to non-quantifiable network structure factors.
A practical distribution network in Taiwan Power Company (TPC), China is used to verify the effectiveness of the sensitivity calculation method proposed in

Fig. 12 Diagram of 94-bus distribution network in TPC, China.
In order to prove the accuracy of our calculation method for reliability sensitivity, the SAIFI sensitivity with respect to
is calculated using both our FIM method and the method in [
The sensitivity indexes calculated by the method in this paper and [
Tables
Tables
These tables show that the components at F9 have the largest sensitivity to SAIDI and EENS. The reason is that no tie line is connected to F9. The outage load points cannot be re-powered until the fault repair is done. Furthermore, F9 has no disconnecting switch, hence the fault range will cover a large non-fault area leading to a high sensitivity magnitude of the component repair duration. An efficient measure to improve the reliability of F9 is to reduce the repair time of the fault components.
It can be seen that the operation time of the disconnecting switch has a larger sensitivity on system reliability as there are fourteen disconnecting switches but only eight tie lines between feeders. The tie lines have limited influence on the whole-system reliability indexes. Therefore, reducing the operation time of the disconnecting switches will have a larger effect on reliability improvement.
Most of the components at F9 have a larger sensitivity magnitude than the components at other feeders. One reason is the lack of a disconnecting switch at F4 to isolate the fault component. And it will lead to a large non-fault area outage. Therefore, installing new disconnecting switches at F4 will be an efficient measure to improve system reliability. The method in Section Ⅲ-C is used to calculate the switch position sensitivity to find the most effective switch installation positions. The SAIDI and EENS sensitivities of the newly installed switch at candidate position branch 66-72 are calculated as shown in

Fig. 13 Sensitivity of installation position of a disconnecting switch.
Adding one tie line to F9 will further enhance the system reliability. The sensitivity of the access position of the tie line is shown in

Fig. 14 Sensitivity of access position of a tie switch.
Thanks to the simplification and the simple algebraic operation based on the FIM, the efficiency of the reliability sensitivity calculation is improved. The computation time contrasts among [
This paper sums up the factors that influence the reliability of a distribution network in detail and gives the explicit analytical calculation method for sensitivity index for each type of influence factors. The repetitive calculation of system reliability can be avoided as component reliability parameters vary during the sensitivity analysis. The bottleneck that affects the reliability level of distribution networks can be identified efficiently, and valuable information and guidance can be provided to enhance the reliability for the distribution system using the method proposed in this paper.
An optimal design to enhance the system reliability can also be conducted with the help of the analytical calculation method for sensitivity indexes such as the optimal configuration of the disconnecting switch and tie line described in Sections Ⅳ-E and Ⅳ-F. In future research, we will focus on further applications of this analytical calculation model for sensitivity in improving the reliability of distribution systems.
REFERENCES
C. Wang, T. Zhang, F. Luo et al., “Fault incidence matrix based reliability evaluation method for complex distribution system,” IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 6736-3745, Nov. 2018. [百度学术]
S. Wang, T. Ding, C. Ye et al., “Reliability evaluation of integrated electricity-gas system utilizing network equivalent and integrated optimal power flow techniques,” Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 1523-1535, Oct. 2019. [百度学术]
F. Hossein, F. Mahmud, and M. Moein, “Role of outage management strategy in reliability performance of multi-microgrid distribution systems,” IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 2359-2369, May 2018. [百度学术]
J. He and X. Guan, “Uncertainty sensitivity analysis for reliability problems with parametric distributions,” IEEE Transaction on Reliability, vol. 66, no. 3, pp. 712-721, Sept. 2017. [百度学术]
Y. Zhao, N. Zhou, J. Zhou et al., “Research on sensitivity analysis for composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation,” in Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology, Chongqing, China, Oct. 2006, pp. 1-5. [百度学术]
C. Wang, T. Zhang, F. Luo et al., “Impacts of cyber system on microgrid operational reliability,” IEEE Transaction on Smart Grids, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 105-115, Jan. 2019. [百度学术]
F. Li, R. E. Brown, and L. Freeman, “A linear contribution factor model of distribution reliability indices and its applications in Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis,” IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1213-1215, Aug. 2003. [百度学术]
L. Zhang, D. Zhang, T. Hua et al., “Reliability evaluation of modular multilevel converter based on Markov model,” Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 1355-1363, Apr. 2019. [百度学术]
T. Zhu, “A new methodology of analytical formula deduction and sensitivity analysis of EENS in bulk power system reliability assessment,” in Proceedings of IEEE PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition, Atlanta, USA, Oct. 2006, pp. 825-831. [百度学术]
J. Zhou, W. Chen, K. Xie et al., “A sensitivity analysis model of HVDC transmission system reliability evaluation,” Power System Technology, vol. 31, no. 19, pp. 18-23, Oct. 2007. [百度学术]
Y. Xiao, L. Zhang, Y. Luo et al., “Grid weak point analysis based on loop contribution index of the reliability,” Power System Protection and Control, vol. 34, no. 15, pp. 54-59, Aug. 2015. [百度学术]
Z. Zhou, Z. Gong, B. Zeng et al., “Reliability analysis of distribution system based on the minimum cut-set method,” in Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering, Chengdu, China, Jun. 2012, pp. 112-116. [百度学术]
H. Liu and J. Huang, “Reliability evaluation for complex distribution system based on the simplified zone model and the minimal path,” in Proceedings of the 2011 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, Wuhan, China, Mar. 2011, pp.1-4. [百度学术]
R. Billinton and P. Wang, “Reliability network equivalent approach to distribution system reliability evaluation,” IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution, vol. 145, no. 2, pp. 149-153, Mar. 1998. [百度学术]
T. Zhang, C. Wang, F. Luo et al., “Optimal design of the sectional switch and tie line for the distribution network based on the fault incidence matrix,” IEEE Transaction on Power systems, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 4869-4879, Nov. 2019. [百度学术]
M. Seyed, M. Hasan, and R. Ruben, “A multi-objective distribution system expansion planning incorporating customer choices on reliability,” IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 1330-1340, Mar. 2016. [百度学术]
W. Wang, J. Loman, and P. Vassiliou, “Reliability importance of components in a complex system,” in Proceedings of IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Annual Symposium, Los Angeles, USA, Jan. 2004, pp. 1-5. [百度学术]
R. Arya, S. Choube, L. Arya et al., “Application of sensitivity analysis for improving reliability indices of a radial distribution system,” International Journal on Emerging Technologies, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 7-10, Mar. 2011. [百度学术]
C. Wang and Y. Xie, “Applying Bayesian network to distribution system reliability analysis,” in Proceedings of TENCON 2004 IEEE Region 10 Conference, Chiang Mai, Thailand, Nov. 2004, pp. 562-565. [百度学术]
K. Xie, L. Zhou, and R. Billinton, “Reliability evaluation algorithm for complex medium voltage electrical distribution networks based on the shortest path,” IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution, vol. 150, no. 6, pp. 686-690, Nov. 2003. [百度学术]
R. Billinton and S. Jonnavithula, “A test system for teaching overall power system reliability assessment,” IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1670-1676, Nov. 1996. [百度学术]
C. Su and C. Lee, “Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using improved mixed-integer hybrid differential evolution,” IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1022-1027, Jul. 2003. [百度学术]
Q. Lu, Y. Hua, Y. Shen et al., “Reliability evaluation of distribution network based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation,” in Proceedings of 2015 5th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT), Changsha, China, Nov. 2015, pp. 1170-1174. [百度学术]
K. Xie, J. Zhou, and R. Billinton, “Fast algorithm for the reliability evaluation of large scale electrical distribution networks using the section technique,” IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 701-707, Sept. 2008. [百度学术]