Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Forecasting-aided State Estimation Framework for Distribution Networks with Multi-source Measurement Data Fusion
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1School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;2State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company, Beijing 100052, China

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the National Natural Science Foundation of China U24B2081This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U24B2081).

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    Abstract:

    Real-time state estimation underpins advanced applications in distribution networks by revealing system operating conditions with high fidelity. Intelligent measurement terminals increasingly combine heterogeneous measurements, including micro-phasor measurement units (μPMUs), remote terminal units (RTUs), and data transmission units (DTUs). Their complementary strengths can overcome traditional limits in time resolution and accuracy. However, heterogeneous formats, asynchronous updates, and complex temporal dynamics challenge conventional estimators. This paper proposes a unified real-time forecasting-aided state estimation (FASE) framework for distribution networks with multi-source measurement data fusion that fuses μPMU, RTU, and DTU data. A long short-term memory (LSTM)-based data imputation method is designed to effectively align delayed RTU and DTU updates with μPMU sampling, markedly reducing imputation errors versus linear and historical-average baselines. Unified measurement equations are formulated for all devices. An improved cubature Kalman filter (CKF) with adaptive robust weighting is adopted to enhance numerical stability and outlier resilience. To capture multimodal operating regimes driven by variable distributed energy resources, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based approach is integrated into the distribution network state transition. Validated on the IEEE 33-bus and 118-bus systems, the proposed FASE framework achieves higher estimation accuracy and computational efficiency than extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and traditional CKF while meeting real-time constraints.

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. Forecasting-aided State Estimation Framework for Distribution Networks with Multi-source Measurement Data Fusion[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems testClean Energy,2026,14(5):1806-1819

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History
  • Received:April 07,2025
  • Revised:July 25,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 28,2026
  • Published:
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