Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

A Machine Learning Approach for Collusion Detection in Electricity Markets Based on Nash Equilibrium Theory
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1.Department of Electrical Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran;2.Predictive Modeling Department of Fiix Software, Toronto, Canada

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    Abstract:

    We aim to provide a tool for independent system operators to detect the collusion and identify the colluding firms by using day-ahead data. In this paper, an approach based on supervised machine learning is presented for collusion detection in electricity markets. The possible scenarios of the collusion among generation firms are firstly identified. Then, for each scenario and possible load demand, market equilibrium is computed. Market equilibrium points under different collusions and their peripheral points are used to train the collusion detection machine using supervised learning approaches such as classification and regression tree (CART) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. By applying the proposed approach to a four-firm and ten-generator test system, the accuracy of the proposed approach is evaluated and the efficiency of SVM and CART algorithms in collusion detection are compared with other supervised learning and statistical techniques.

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History
  • Received:August 27,2018
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: January 22,2021
  • Published:
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