Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Wind power prediction based on variational mode decomposition multi-frequency combinations
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1. Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-Electric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China 2. State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Gansu Electric Power Research Institute, Lanzhou 730050, China 3. State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company, Shaanxi Electric Power Research Institute, Xi’an 710054, China

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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51507141), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0401409) and the Shaanxi provincial education office fund (No. 17JK0547).

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    Abstract:

    Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power integration. Because the traditional single model cannot fully characterize the fluctuating characteristics of wind power, scholars have attempted to build other prediction models based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) or ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to tackle this problem. However, the prediction accuracy of these models is affected by modal aliasing and illusive components. Aimed at these defects, this paper proposes a multi-frequency combination prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD). We use a back propagation neural network (BPNN), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) to predict high, intermediate, and low frequency components, respectively. Based on the predicted values of each component, the BPNN is applied to combine them into a final wind power prediction value. Finally, the prediction performance of the single prediction models (ARMA, BPNN, LS-SVM) and the decomposition prediction models (EMD and EEMD) are used to compare with the proposed VMD model according to the evaluation indices such as average absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error to validate its feasibility and accuracy. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed VMD model is higher.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: March 08,2019
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