DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s40565-017-0370-4 |
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Failure probability estimation of overhead transmission lines considering the spatial and temporal variation in severe weather |
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Author:
Shuai YANG1, Wenjun ZHOU1, Shiyang ZHU2, Le WANG2, Lisha YE3, Xuezhi XIA1, Han LI1
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Author Affiliation:
1. School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan
430072, China
2. Electric Power Research Institute, Guangxi Power Grid Co.,
Ltd, Nanning 530023, China
3. Hubei Electric Engineering Corporation, Wuhan 430040,
China
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Abstract: |
Estimation for weather-related failure probability
of overhead transmission lines is essential in the reliability
assessment of a power system. This paper analyzes
the outage and weather data of 110 kV overhead transmission
lines in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
of China during 2011–2014. The result reveals obvious
uneven distributions of outage events for time and space
due to the spatial and temporal variation of severe weather.
Based on the results, an estimation method is proposed in
this paper. Split and aggregation is used to smooth the
outage and weather data. The poisson model is adopted in
our method to investigate the statistic characteristics of
transmission line outage events. Regression analysis is
applied to obtain the correlation between the weather
intensity and history failure rate. Furthermore the method
proposed is validated against the empirical outage data. |
Keywords: |
Severe weather, Transmission line, Poisson
model, Failure probability, Regression analysis |
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Online Time:2019/01/28 |
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