DOI:10.1007/s40565-018-0446-9 |
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Irregular distribution of wind power prediction |
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Net amount: 700 |
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Author:
Kun YUAN1, Kaifeng ZHANG1, Yaxian ZHENG2, Dawei LI1, Ying WANG1, Zhenglin YANG2
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Author Affiliation:
1. Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of CSE, School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210018, China
2. China Electric Power Research Institute (Nanjing), Nanjing 210003, China
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Foundation: |
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Abstract: |
Wind power is volatile and uncertain, which
makes it difficult to establish an accurate prediction model.
How to quantitatively describe the distribution of wind
power output is the focus of this paper. First, it is assumed
that wind speed is a random variable that satisfies the
normal distribution. Secondly, based on the nonlinear
relationship between wind speed and wind power, the
distribution model of wind power prediction is established
from the viewpoint of the physical mechanism. The proposed
model successfully shows the complex characteristics
of the wind power prediction distribution. The results
show that the distribution of wind power prediction varies
significantly with the point forecast of the wind speed. |
Keywords: |
Wind power prediction, Normal distribution,
Irregular distribution, Distribution model |
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Online Time:2018/11/11 |
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